[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 May 19 issued 2330 UT on 06 May 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 7 09:30:20 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 May 08 May 09 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the last 24 hours with
several B-class and C-class flares from region 2740(N07E40).
The largest flare was a C9.9 flare at 06/0510 UT associated with
a weak type II sweep and a narrow CME. There is currently another
new numbered region, 2741(N03E74) on the solar visible disk.
Region 2740 has increased in area and magnetic complexity (Beta-Delta
magnetic class), it is expected to produce more C-class flares
with the possibility of M-class flares over the next three days,
7-9 May. A series of CMEs observed after 06/0548 UT in coronagraphy
imagery will be analysed for any Earth directed components. On
UT day 6 May, the solar wind speed gradually decreased, currently
around 340 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) mainly varied between 3-5
nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied between
+/-3 nT. The solar wind is expected to become moderately enhanced
on 7-8 May due to a small recurrent equatorial coronal hole,
then start to weaken on 9 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 May : A K
Australian Region 3 10012221
Cocos Island 2 11011110
Darwin 3 11012111
Townsville 3 10012211
Learmonth 4 11012221
Culgoora 3 10012221
Gingin 4 11012221
Canberra 3 00022210
Launceston 4 10022221
Hobart 3 00012221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 May :
Macquarie Island 2 00022110
Casey 7 23212221
Mawson 13 31113235
Davis 8 13212232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 2100 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 May 12 Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active periods.
08 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 May 7 Mostly Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 6 May. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to increase to Quiet to Unsettled levels, with isolated Active
periods, on 7-8 May due the effects associated with a small recurrent
coronal hole, returning to Mostly Quiet on 8 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal
08 May Normal Normal Normal
09 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 May -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -12
Jun -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 May -10 Near predicted monthly values
08 May -10 Near predicted monthly values
09 May -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 6
May and is current for 6-8 May. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
ranged mostly from near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced
levels during the last 24 hours for the Australian region. Sporadic
E layers were observed over most of the Australian region. Mostly
normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly MUFs are expected
for the next three UT days, 7-9 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 434 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 122000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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