[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 May 19 issued 2333 UT on 05 May 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 6 09:33:38 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 May 07 May 08 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last 24 hours
with only B-class flares, the largest flare a B9.8 at 05/1342
UT. There is currently one numbered sunspot region on the solar
disk visible from the Earth. Solar activity is expected to be
Very Low to Low on 6-8 May. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 5 May, the solar
wind speed gradually decreased, starting around 490 km/s, currently
around 370 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) mainly varied between 2 to
4 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied between
+/-3 nT. The solar wind is expected to become moderately enhanced
on 6 and 7 May due to a small recurrent equatorial coronal hole,
then start to weaken on 8 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 May : A K
Australian Region 0 00001100
Cocos Island 0 00000000
Darwin 1 11000101
Townsville 2 11101111
Learmonth 1 01001100
Culgoora 0 00000101
Gingin 0 00001100
Canberra 0 00000100
Launceston 1 11001100
Hobart 0 00001100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 5 22211211
Mawson 10 42212133
Davis 8 23322121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 1233 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 May 12 Quiet to Unsettled, with isolated Active periods
07 May 12 Quiet to Unsettled, with isolated Active periods
08 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 5 May. Quiet to Active levels were
observed in Antarctica. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to increase to Quiet to Unsettled levels, with isolated Active
periods, on 6 and 7 May due the effects associated with a small
recurrent coronal hole, returning to Quiet to Unsettled levels
on 8 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced levels over
the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted
monthly MUFs are expected for the next three UT days, 6-8 May,
with a chance of minor MUF depressions on UT days 7-8 May due
to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 May -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -12
Jun -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 May -2 Near predicted monthly values
07 May -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
08 May -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced levels during
the last 24 hours for the Australian region. Sporadic E layers
were observed over most of the Australian region. Mostly normal
HF conditions and near predicted monthly MUFs are expected for
the next three UT days, 6-8 May, in the Australian/NZ regions,
with a chance of minor MUF depressions on UT days 7-8 May due
to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 482 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 179000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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