[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 May 19 issued 2330 UT on 07 May 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 8 09:30:18 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 May             09 May             10 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    79/19              79/19              79/19

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the last 24 hours with 
several B-class flares and two low level C-class flares from 
region 2740(N07E28). There are currently two numbered regions 
on the solar visible disk. Solar activity is expected to be Low 
on 8-10 May with a chance of an isolated M-class flare. Analysis 
of yesterday's CME activity associated with region 2740 show 
that its not Earth directed. There is a large data gap in SOHO 
imagery, patchy LASCO C2 imagery between 06/2348UT and 07/0036UT 
show a CME most likely associated with region 2740. Stereo A 
showed a Halo CME after 06/1600UT.THis will be analysed for any 
Earth directed component. On UT day 7 May, the solar wind varied 
between 320-400 Km/s, currently around 340 km/s. The total IMF 
(Bt) mainly varied between 2-5 nT. The north-south component 
of the IMF (Bz) varied between +/-3 nT. The solar wind is expected 
to become slightly enhanced on 8-9 May due to a small recurrent 
equatorial coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 07 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12101221
      Cocos Island         2   11000220
      Darwin               4   12101221
      Townsville           4   12111221
      Learmonth            6   12112231
      Culgoora             3   12101121
      Gingin               5   21102231
      Canberra             3   12101120
      Launceston           6   13112222
      Hobart               3   12001121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 May :
      Macquarie Island     2   02001110
      Casey                8   23222131
      Mawson              10   23221242
      Davis                8   12322132

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1102 2122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 May    12    Quiet to Unsettled levels, with possible isolated 
                Active periods.
09 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled
10 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region on UT day 7 May. Geomagnetic activity is expected 
to increase to Quiet to Unsettled levels, with possible isolated 
Active periods, on 08-09 May due the effects associated with 
a small recurrent coronal hole, returning to Quiet levels on 
10 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly 
MUFs are expected for the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 May     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -12
Jun      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values
09 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values
10 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 6 
May and is current for 6-8 May. Mostly near monthly predicted 
MUFs were observed for 07 May over the Australian and Antarctic 
region with enhanced conditions for Equatorial regions. Sporadic 
E layers observed over some Australian ionosonde station. Similar 
conditions are expected for the next three UT days, 8-10 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 373 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    41000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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