[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 May 19 issued 2330 UT on 07 May 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 8 09:30:18 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 May 09 May 10 May
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 79/19 79/19
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the last 24 hours with
several B-class flares and two low level C-class flares from
region 2740(N07E28). There are currently two numbered regions
on the solar visible disk. Solar activity is expected to be Low
on 8-10 May with a chance of an isolated M-class flare. Analysis
of yesterday's CME activity associated with region 2740 show
that its not Earth directed. There is a large data gap in SOHO
imagery, patchy LASCO C2 imagery between 06/2348UT and 07/0036UT
show a CME most likely associated with region 2740. Stereo A
showed a Halo CME after 06/1600UT.THis will be analysed for any
Earth directed component. On UT day 7 May, the solar wind varied
between 320-400 Km/s, currently around 340 km/s. The total IMF
(Bt) mainly varied between 2-5 nT. The north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) varied between +/-3 nT. The solar wind is expected
to become slightly enhanced on 8-9 May due to a small recurrent
equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 May : A K
Australian Region 4 12101221
Cocos Island 2 11000220
Darwin 4 12101221
Townsville 4 12111221
Learmonth 6 12112231
Culgoora 3 12101121
Gingin 5 21102231
Canberra 3 12101120
Launceston 6 13112222
Hobart 3 12001121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 May :
Macquarie Island 2 02001110
Casey 8 23222131
Mawson 10 23221242
Davis 8 12322132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1102 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 May 12 Quiet to Unsettled levels, with possible isolated
Active periods.
09 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 7 May. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to increase to Quiet to Unsettled levels, with possible isolated
Active periods, on 08-09 May due the effects associated with
a small recurrent coronal hole, returning to Quiet levels on
10 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal
09 May Normal Normal Normal
10 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 May 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -12
Jun -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
09 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
10 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 6
May and is current for 6-8 May. Mostly near monthly predicted
MUFs were observed for 07 May over the Australian and Antarctic
region with enhanced conditions for Equatorial regions. Sporadic
E layers observed over some Australian ionosonde station. Similar
conditions are expected for the next three UT days, 8-10 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 41000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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