[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 May 19 issued 2333 UT on 02 May 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 3 09:33:02 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 May 04 May 05 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 2 May. There
are currently no sunspots on the solar disk visible from the
Earth. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low to Low on 3-5
May, with a slight chance of C-class flaring due to the expected
return of old Region 2738 on UT day 3 May. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT
day 2 May, the solar wind speed started around 500 km/s then
increased from 02/0200 UT reaching a maximum of 579 km/s at 02/0901
UT, currently around 480 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between
7 to 9 nT at the start of the UT day, then decreased after 02/0200
UT to range between 2 to 6 nT. The north-south component of the
IMF (Bz) varied in the range -7 to +4 nT at the start of the
UT day, currently varying between +/-4 nT. The solar wind is
expected to gradually decline on 3-4 May, returning to nominal
values by 5 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 May : A K
Australian Region 7 22222231
Cocos Island 5 12221220
Darwin 6 22222221
Townsville 7 22222231
Learmonth 7 22232220
Alice Springs 6 22222221
Culgoora 7 12322230
Gingin 10 22233330
Canberra 7 12322230
Launceston 11 23332331
Hobart 8 12322231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 May :
Macquarie Island 11 23333231
Casey 21 33333361
Mawson 33 36442363
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 1222 2234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 May 9 Quiet to Unsettled
04 May 6 Quiet to Unsettled
05 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled levels
across the Australian region on UT day 2 May. Mostly Quiet to
Unsettled levels were observed in Antarctica, with some Active
to Minor Storm periods. On UT days 3-4 May, global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels due to
the waning effects associated with a recurrent coronal hole,
returning to mainly Quiet levels on 05 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced levels over
the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted
monthly MUFs are expected for the next two UT days, 3-4 May,
with a chance of minor MUF depressions due to an increase in
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 May 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -12
Jun -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 May 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
04 May 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
05 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced levels during
the last 24 hours for the Australian region. Sporadic E layers
were observed over most of the Australian region. Mostly normal
HF conditions and near predicted monthly MUFs are expected for
the next two UT days, 3-4 May, in the Australian/NZ regions,
with a chance of minor MUF depressions due to an increase in
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 46300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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