[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 May 19 issued 2333 UT on 01 May 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 2 09:33:33 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 May 03 May 04 May
Activity Very low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 70/5 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 1 May. There
are currently no sunspots on the solar disk visible from the
Earth. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low on 2 May,
with a chance of C-class flaring on 3-4 May due to the return
of old Region 2738. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the
available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 1 May, the solar wind
speed ranged between 290 km/s and 360 km/s at the start of the
day, then started to gradually increase at 01/1249 UT. The solar
wind speed peaked at 522 km/s at 01/2100 UT and is currently
around 500 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 2 nT and 7
nT at the start of the UT day, then began to gradually increase
after 01/1100 UT, peaking at 11.4 nT at 11/1907 UT. The north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range -10 to +7 nT, reaching
a minimum of -10.1 at 01/1607 UT, and was mostly southward. The
solar wind is expected to continue to be enhanced on 2 May due
to the influence of a recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole,
then gradually decline on 3-4 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 May : A K
Australian Region 7 12112332
Cocos Island 7 02012333
Darwin 6 12112232
Townsville 8 12122332
Learmonth 8 02212333
Alice Springs 6 12111232
Culgoora 7 22112232
Gingin 8 02112333
Canberra 6 02112232
Launceston 9 02222333
Hobart 7 02112332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 May :
Macquarie Island 6 01222232
Mawson 34 24332357
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2101 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 May 15 Unsettled to Active
03 May 9 Quiet to Unsettled
04 May 6 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled levels
across the Australian region on UT day 1 May. Mostly Quiet to
Unsettled levels were observed in Antarctica, with an isolated
minor storm period. On UT day 2 May, global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be at Unsettled to Active levels due to effects
associated with a recurrent coronal hole, then decline to Quiet
to Unsettled levels on 3-4 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced levels over
the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted
monthly MUFs are expected for the next three UT days, 2-4 May,
with a chance of minor MUF depressions due to an increase in
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 May -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -12
Jun -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 May -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed -10 to
-20%
03 May -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed -10 to
-20%
04 May -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed -10 to
-20%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced levels during
the last 24 hours for the Australian region. The Niue Island
and Northern Australian regions experienced minor MUF depressions
during the local day. Sporadic E layers were observed over most
of the Australian region. Mostly normal HF conditions and near
predicted monthly MUFs are expected for the next three UT days,
2-4 May, in the Australian/NZ regions, with a chance of minor
MUF depressions due to an increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 318 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 26300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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