[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 May 19 issued 2336 UT on 03 May 2019

Sat May 4 09:36:33 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 May             05 May             06 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              76/14              76/14

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 3 May. There is 
currently one numbered sunspot region on the solar disk visible 
from the Earth. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low to 
Low on 4-6 May. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 3 May, the solar wind speed gradually 
declined, starting around 480 km/s and reaching a minimum of 
361 km/s at 03/1705 UT, currently around 410 km/s. The total 
IMF (Bt) varied between 4 to 7 nT at the start of the UT day, 
then gradually increased after 03/1600 UT to range between 8 
to 11 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) started the 
UT day mainly southward, varying between -5 to 2 nT, currently 
varying between -6 to +4 nT. The solar wind is expected to continue 
at light to moderate levels on 4-5 May, then experience a moderate 
enhancement on 6 May due to a small recurrent equatorial coronal 
hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11212122
      Cocos Island         3   11111121
      Darwin               4   20211122
      Townsville           5   21212122
      Learmonth            5   21212122
      Alice Springs        5   11212122
      Culgoora             4   11212121
      Gingin               4   10211222
      Canberra             3   11211111
      Launceston           6   11322122
      Hobart               4   11211121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 May :
      Macquarie Island     3   11212011
      Casey                7   22221123
      Mawson              32   44333237
      Davis               14   23322225

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             12   4432 2222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 May     6    Quiet
05 May     5    Quiet
06 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at mainly Quiet levels across 
the Australian region on UT day 3 May. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled 
levels were observed in Antarctica, with some Active to Minor 
Storm periods. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be 
at mainly Quiet levels on UT days 4-5 May, then it may increase 
to Quiet to Unsettled levels on 6 May due the effects associated 
with a small recurrent coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced levels over 
the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted 
monthly MUFs are expected for the next three UT days, 4-6 May.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 May    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -12
Jun      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values
05 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values
06 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced levels during 
the last 24 hours for the Australian region. Sporadic E layers 
were observed over most of the Australian region. Mostly normal 
HF conditions and near predicted monthly MUFs are expected for 
the next three UT days, 4-6 May, in the Australian/NZ regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: 529 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:   208000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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