[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 March 19 issued 2330 UT on 21 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 22 10:30:19 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day 21 March. Currently
there are two spotted regions on the visible disc, AR2735 and
AR2736. On 21 March the region AR2736 has produced 5 C-class
flares, the largest one is a C5.6 flare, which peaked at 0308
UT. Solar activity is expected to be Low for the next 3 UT days,
22-24 March, with a small chance that the region AR2736 will
produce isolated M-class flares. The CME which became visible
in LASCO imagery at 20/1140 UT is expected to arrive at the Earth
in the first half of the UT day 23 March. No other Earth directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On 21
March the solar wind speed was varying in the range 320-380 km/s,
gradually decreasing. At the time of this report the solar wind
speed is near 320 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 1 nT
and 4 nT and its north-south component (Bz) was fluctuating between
+3 nT and -2 nT without significant periods of negative Bz. On
UT day 22 March the solar wind speed is expected to remain near
its background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Mar : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 2 10101002
Learmonth 2 22100000
Alice Springs 1 11100001
Culgoora 0 11000000
Gingin 1 11001000
Canberra 0 1100000-
Launceston 1 11111000
Hobart 0 01001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 33320000
Mawson 3 22120000
Davis 4 23220000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Mar :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 0221 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Mar 6 Quiet
23 Mar 32 Active to Minor Storm
24 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 21 March and
is current for 23 Mar only. Quiet conditions were observed across
the Australian region on 21 March and Quiet to Unsettled conditions
were in Antarctica. For 22 March, the global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels. On 23 March the CME
which became visible in LASCO imagery at 20/1140 UT is expected
to arrive; this may result in an increase in geomagnetic activity
up to Minor Storm levels with possible Major Storm periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
23 Mar Fair Fair Fair-poor
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on 21 March.
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next UT day, 22 March,
with a chance of moderately depressed MUFs mostly at high latitudes.
On 23-24 March the HF propagation conditions are expected to
be degraded due to the predicted increase in the geomagnetic
activity up to Storm levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Mar -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
23 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
24 Mar 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed for
Australian region on UT day 21 March. Similar conditions are
expected for the next UT day, 22 March, with a chance of MUF
depressions for Northern and Southern Australian regions. On
23-24 March the HF propagation conditions are expected to be
degraded due to the predicted increase in the geomagnetic activity
up to Storm levels. Mildly enhanced MUFs are expected for 23-24
March as a consequence of the predicted geomagnetic storm.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 400 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 52800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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