[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 March 19 issued 2330 UT on 22 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 23 10:30:20 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day 22 March. Currently
there is one spotted region on the visible disc, AR2736. On 21
March this region has produced 6 C-class flares, the largest
one is a C4.8 flare, which peaked at 0514 UT. Solar activity
is expected to be Low for the next 3 UT days, 23-25 March, with
a chance that the region AR2736 will produce isolated M-class
flares. The CME which became visible in LASCO imagery at 20/1140
UT is expected to arrive at the Earth in the first half of the
UT day 23 March. No other Earth directed CMEs were observed in
the available coronagraph imagery. On 22 March the solar wind
speed was varying in the range 310-340 km/s. The total IMF (Bt)
ranged between 2 nT and 4 nT and its north-south component (Bz)
was fluctuating between +3 nT and -2 nT without significant periods
of negative Bz. At the beginning of the UT day 23 March the solar
wind speed is expected to remain near its background levels.
Upon arrival of the shock wave associated with the 20 March CME
the solar wind can increase to moderate levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Mar : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 1 11101001
Learmonth 0 10100000
Alice Springs 0 11000000
Culgoora 0 10100000
Gingin 0 10100000
Canberra 3 33000000
Launceston 1 11100000
Hobart 0 00100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 22300100
Mawson 1 11110000
Davis 3 22210010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0100 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Mar 32 Active to Minor Storm
24 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
25 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 21 March and
is current for 23 Mar only. Quiet conditions were observed across
the Australian region and in Antarctica on 22 March. On 23 March
the CME which became visible in LASCO imagery at 20/1140 UT is
expected to arrive; this may result in an increase in geomagnetic
activity up to Minor Storm levels with possible Major Storm periods.
On 25 March the geomagnetic activity is expected to return to
Quiet to Unsettled levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
24 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on 22 March.
Similar HF conditions are expected for the beginning of the next
UT day, 23 March, with a chance of moderately depressed MUFs
mostly at high latitudes. Later on 23 and on 24 March the HF
propagation conditions are expected to degrade due to the predicted
increase in the geomagnetic activity up to Storm levels. Mildly
enhanced MUFs are expected for 23-24 March as a consequence of
the predicted geomagnetic storm.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Mar -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
24 Mar 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
30%
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 22
March and is current for 22-23 Mar. Mostly near predicted monthly
MUFs were observed for Australian region on UT day 22 March,
with mild depressions for Northern Australian region during local
day. Similar conditions are expected for the beginning of the
next UT day, 23 March, with a chance of MUF depressions for Northern
and Southern Australian regions. Later on 23 March and on 24
March the HF propagation conditions are expected to degrade due
to the predicted increase in the geomagnetic activity up to Storm
levels. Mildly enhanced MUFs are expected for 23-24 March as
a consequence of the predicted geomagnetic storm.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 26100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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