[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 March 19 issued 2330 UT on 20 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 21 10:30:19 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day 20 March. Currently
there are two spotted region on the visible disc, AR2735 and
AR2736. On 20 March the region AR2736 has produced several B-class
flares and a C4.8 flare, which peaked at 1118 UT. The C-class
flare was accompanied by a type II sweep and a CME, which became
visible in LASCO imagery at 1140 UT. This CME is expected to
arrive at the Earth in the first half of the UT day 23 March.
No other Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low to Low for
the next 3 UT days, 20-22 March, with a chance for C-class flares.
On 20 March the solar wind speed was varying in the range 380-410
km/s, gradually decreasing. At the time of this report the solar
wind speed is near 380 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between
2 nT and 5 nT and its north-south component (Bz) was oscillating
between +4 nT and -3 nT without significant periods of negative
Bz. On UT day 21 March the solar wind speed is expected to return
to its background levels as the coronal hole effects wane.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 11122200
Cocos Island 2 11101200
Darwin 3 11112201
Townsville 4 12112201
Learmonth 4 11123200
Alice Springs 3 11112200
Culgoora 4 11122201
Gingin 4 11122210
Canberra 4 21122200
Launceston 6 22123211
Hobart 4 22122200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 11022100
Casey 8 23232211
Mawson 14 23222235
Davis 9 24222221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1111 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Mar 6 Quiet
22 Mar 6 Quiet
23 Mar 32 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed across the Australian
region on 20 March and mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions were
in Antarctica. For 21-22 March, the global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels with possible Unsettled
periods. On 23 March the CME associated with the C4.8 flare is
expected to arrive; this may result in an increase in geomagnetic
activity up to Minor Storm levels with possible Major Storm periods.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Mar Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on 20 March.
Occasional moderate depressions were observed at low latitudes.
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 2 UT days, 21-22
March, with a chance of moderately depressed MUFs mostly at high
latitudes. On 23 March the HF propagation conditions are expected
to be degraded due to the predicted increase in the geomagnetic
activity up to Storm levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Mar -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
22 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
23 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed for
Australian region on UT day 20 March, with mild depressions for
Northern Australian region during local night. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 2 UT days, 21-22 March, with a chance
of further MUF depressions for Northern and Southern Australian
regions. On 23 March the HF propagation conditions are expected
to be degraded due to the predicted increase in the geomagnetic
activity up to Storm levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 370 km/sec Density: 9.6 p/cc Temp: 53400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list