[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 March 19 issued 2330 UT on 19 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 20 10:30:19 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Mar 21 Mar 22 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day 19 March.
Currently there is one spotted region on the visible disc, AR2735.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3
UT days, 20-22 March, with a slight chance for C-class flares.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available imagery.
The solar wind speed was near its background levels up to 19/1330
UT, then it increased to 410 km/s. At the time of this report
the solar wind speed is near 400 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged
between 1 nT and 3 nT up to 19/0820 UT, then it abruptly increased
to 7 nT and then varied in the range 4-7 nT. After 0820 UT the
north-south component of IMF (Bz) was oscillating between +7
nT and -6 nT. Solar wind speed is expected to remain moderately
enhanced during the next UT day, 20 March, due to the high-speed
solar wind stream from the recurrent equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 11122122
Cocos Island 5 11122122
Darwin 4 12122111
Townsville 5 11222221
Learmonth 6 11222222
Alice Springs 5 11122122
Culgoora 4 11122121
Gingin 5 11112123
Canberra 4 01112122
Launceston 5 11222122
Hobart 4 11112122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Mar :
Macquarie Island 3 10122110
Casey 10 24322122
Mawson 29 23222275
Davis 10 13322233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0100 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Mar 6 Quiet
22 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed across the Australian
region on 19 March and mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions were
in Antarctica. For 20 March, the global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels with possible
isolated Active periods. The predicted increase in the geomagnetic
activity is due to the high speed solar wind stream from the
recurrent equatorial coronal hole. Then the global geomagnetic
activity is expected to return to mostly Quiet levels as the
coronal hole effects wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on 19 March.
Occasional moderate depressions were observed at low latitudes.
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT days, 20-22
March, with a chance of moderately depressed MUFs mostly at high
latitudes as a consequence of the predicted increase in the geomagnetic
activity for 20 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Mar -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
21 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
22 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed for
Australian region on UT day 19 March, with mild depressions for
Northern Australian region during local day. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 3 UT days, 20-22 March, with a chance
of further MUF depressions for Northern and Southern Australian
regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 32300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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