[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 March 19 issued 2321 UT on 18 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 19 10:21:28 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day 18 March.
Currently there is one spotted region on the visible disc, AR2735;
on 18 March it produced several B-class flares. Solar activity
is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 19-21
March, with a slight chance for C-class flares. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed in the available imagery. The solar wind speed
was gradually decreasing from 380 km/s at 18/0000 UT to 330-340
km/s at the time of this report. During the UT day 18 March the
total IMF (Bt) ranged between 2 nT and 7 nT. The north-south
component of IMF (Bz) ranged between +3 nT and -1 nT without
significant periods of southward Bz. Solar wind speed is expected
to remain at ambient levels over the next 15-20 hours. A moderate
increase in the solar wind speed is possible at the end of the
UT day 19 March due to expected arrival of a high speed solar
wind stream from a recurrent equatorial coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Mar : A K
Australian Region 0 01100000
Cocos Island 0 1-100000
Darwin 1 01100001
Townsville 1 11101001
Learmonth 1 11100001
Alice Springs 0 01000000
Culgoora 0 01100000
Gingin 1 10100010
Canberra 0 01000000
Launceston 2 02101100
Hobart 1 02101000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 01010000
Casey 6 23320111
Mawson 7 22112114
Davis 5 22222111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18 5443 3201
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed across the Australian
region on 18 March and mostly Quiet conditions were in Antarctica.
For 19-20 March, the global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels with possible isolated Active
periods. The predicted increase in the geomagnetic activity is
due to expected arrival of the high speed solar wind stream from
the recurrent equatorial coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions were observed for 18 March. Occasional
enhancements for low latitudes to slightly depressed MUFs at
mid latitudes and disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes.
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT days, 19-21
March, with a chance of moderately depressed MUFs at high latitudes
as a consequence of the observed increase in geomagnetic activity
on 16-17 March and a predicted increase in the geomagnetic activity
for 19-20 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Mar -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
20 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
21 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 2 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed for
Australian region on UT day 18 March, with mild depressions for
Southern Australian region during local day. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 3 UT days, 19-21 March, with a chance
of further MUF depressions for Northern and Southern Australian
regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 43700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list