[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 March 19 issued 2330 UT on 05 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 6 10:30:06 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 05 March. There
is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible solar
disk, Region 2374 located near N08E26 at 05/2300 UT. Solar activity
is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 06-08
March. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 05 March, the solar wind speed were mostly
near weakly elevated levels of 400 km/s. These weakly elevated
solar wind speed are possibly caused by small patchy equatorial
coronal holes. During this period the total IMF (Bt) ranged between
2 nT and 6 nT. The north-south component of IMF (Bz) ranged between
+5 nT and -5 nT. The two day outlook (UT 06-07 March) is for
the solar wind to remain mostly near its current weakly elevated
level as the coronal hole effects persist.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Mar : A K
Australian Region 1 10001111
Cocos Island 0 10000100
Darwin 2 11011101
Townsville 4 11112112
Learmonth 3 21001112
Alice Springs 2 10011111
Gingin 3 20002121
Canberra 2 10002101
Launceston 4 11112112
Hobart 2 10102101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 20002100
Casey 10 33322222
Mawson 18 42212226
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1222 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Mar 7 Quiet
07 Mar 7 Quiet
08 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 05 March. Unsettled and occasional Active conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. The observed disturbed
conditions in the high latitude regions are because the earth
is currently under the influence of weakly elevated solar wind
speed emanating from small patchy equatorial coronal holes. During
the next 2 UT days, 06-07 March, the global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels and at times may reach
Unsettled levels due to the current coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: On UT day 5 March there were mild MUF depressions over
the Southern high latitude regions compared to the monthly predicted
levels due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for today with
occasional MUF depressions due to continued low levels of ionising
radiation.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Mar -18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Mar -15 Near predicted monthly values
07 Mar -15 Near predicted monthly values
08 Mar -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 05 March, MUFs were mildly depressed to near
monthly predicted levels over most Australian region as a consequence
of very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun. Similar
levels of ionospheric support are expected for the next 3 days
due to continued low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:30%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 419 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 197000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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