[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 March 19 issued 2330 UT on 04 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 5 10:30:23 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 04 March. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days,
05-07 March. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 04 March, the solar wind speed
declined from 475 km/s to nearly 400 km/s in response to the
waning effects of a negative polarity coronal hole. During this
period the total IMF (Bt) ranged between 3 nT and 6 nT. The north-south
component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between +4 nT and -5 nT, with
a significant southward condition from 04/0800 UT to 04/1200
UT. The two day outlook (UT 05-06 March) is for the solar wind
to remain mostly near its current weakly enhanced level. The
expected moderate enhancements are due to effects from small
patchy equatorial coronal holes, now at geoeffective location
on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 12122112
Cocos Island 3 1-112111
Darwin 4 12122101
Townsville 6 12232112
Learmonth 5 12222112
Alice Springs 3 01122002
Gingin 6 11122213
Canberra 4 12132001
Launceston 8 12242112
Hobart 5 12132011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Mar :
Macquarie Island 15 13255101
Casey 13 33433113
Mawson 22 45433324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2300 1002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Mar 7 Quiet
06 Mar 7 Quiet
07 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 04 March. Unsettled to Active conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region. The observed disturbed conditions
are because of moderately elevated solar wind speed and the prolonged
southward Bz conditions associated with a waning negative polarity
coronal hole. During the next 2 UT days, 05-06 March, the global
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels
and at times may reach Unsettled levels due to effects from small
patchy equatorial coronal holes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: On UT day 4 March, due to very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun and recent geomagnetic activity there
were MUF depressions over the Southern high latitude regions
compared to the monthly predicted levels. Similar HF conditions
are expected for the next 2 UT days, 05-06 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Mar -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values
06 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values
07 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 04 March, MUFs were mildly depressed to near
monthly predicted levels over most Australian region as a consequence
of very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun. Similar
levels of ionospheric support are expected for the next 3 days
with MUFs either near predicted monthly values or mildly depressed
due to continued low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:37%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 464 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 196000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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