[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 March 19 issued 2330 UT on 03 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 4 10:30:20 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 03 March. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days,
04-06 March. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 03 March, the solar wind speed
declined from 550 km/s to nearly 430 km/s in response to the
waning effect of a negative polarity coronal hole. During this
period the total IMF (Bt) ranged between 3 nT and 5 nT and the
north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between +/-4 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to continue to decline over
the next 24 hours as the effect of the coronal hole wanes further.
A slight enhancement in the solar wind speed may be observed
over the next three UT days, 04-06 March due some weak dispatched
coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 22211001
Cocos Island 2 21111000
Darwin 3 22211001
Townsville 4 22211002
Learmonth 3 22201001
Alice Springs 3 22201001
Gingin 4 22102111
Canberra 3 22211001
Launceston 6 23212102
Hobart 4 22212001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Mar :
Macquarie Island 3 22112001
Casey 14 44422122
Mawson 15 34322234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 4332 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Mar 12 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Mar 12 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 03 March. Active periods were observed in the
Antarctic region. Geomagnetic activity may increase to Unsettled
levels on UT days 04-06 March if the solar wind becomes enhanced
due to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
05 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions observed on 03 March.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Mar -23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Mar -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
05 Mar -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
06 Mar -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: On UT day 03 March, MUFs were Mildly depressed to near
monthly predicted levels over most Australian region as a consequence
of very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun. Strong
Sporadic E layers observed at Hobart ionosonde station. Similar
levels of ionospheric support are expected for the next 3 days
with MUFs either near predicted monthly values or mildly to moderately
depressed due to continued low levels of ionising radiation from
the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:35%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 548 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 195000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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