[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 March 19 issued 2330 UT on 02 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 3 10:30:20 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 02 March. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days,
03-05 March. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 02 March, the solar wind speed
remained at enhanced levels around 550 Km/s, gradually decreasing
on average as coronal hole effects start waning. The total IMF
(Bt) ranged from 3 nT to 5 nT. The north-south component of IMF
(Bz) varied in the range +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to approach its background levels over the next two UT days 03-04
March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 02 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 22233331
Cocos Island 6 22112320
Darwin 9 22233321
Townsville 11 22233332
Learmonth 13 32234331
Alice Springs 10 22233331
Gingin 14 32234431
Canberra 10 22233331
Launceston 15 23334431
Hobart 14 23234431
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Mar :
Macquarie Island 21 33346320
Casey 20 34533333
Mawson 29 54532354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 18 4433 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Mar 12 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Mar 7 Mainly Quiet
05 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 02 March. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT day 03 March
as the coronal hole effects persist. Then mainly Quiet conditions
on UT days 04-05 March as the coronal hole effects wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
04 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions observed on 02 March.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Mar -21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Mar -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
04 Mar -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
05 Mar -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: On UT day 02 March, MUFs were Mildly depressed to near
monthly predicted levels over most Australian region as a consequence
of very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and increased
geomagnetic activity. Sporadic E layers were observed over some
Australian ionosonde stations. Similar levels of ionospheric
support are expected for the next 3 days with MUFs either near
predicted monthly values or mildly to moderately depressed due
to continued low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 568 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 333000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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