[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 March 19 issued 2330 UT on 01 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 2 10:30:16 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 01 March. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days,
02-04 March. LASCO C2 imagery captured a CME starting 01/1200UT,
it doesn't appear to have an Earth directed component. The solar
wind speed observed during the last 24 hours remained at strongly
enhanced levels, near 580 km/s due to continued coronal hole
effects. The total IMF (Bt) ranged from 6 nT to 8 nT. The north-south
component of IMF (Bz) varied in the range +/-6 nT with short
lived southward excursions. Enhanced solar wind speeds are expected
to continue today, 02 March as coronal hole effects persist.
The enhanced solar winds should begin to wane on UT days 03-04
March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 01 Mar : A K
Australian Region 18 34334333
Cocos Island 11 23233322
Darwin 15 24334322
Townsville 18 34334333
Learmonth 22 34334533
Alice Springs 17 24334333
Gingin 19 33334443
Canberra 15 34333332
Launceston 19 34334433
Hobart 14 24333332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Mar :
Macquarie Island 20 24344522
Casey 28 55543333
Mawson 57 55433477
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 22 4324 5343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Mar 15 Quiet to Active.
03 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 01 March. The observed disturbed
conditions were caused by HSS associated with the coronal hole.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at Quiet to Active levels
on UT day 02 March as the coronal hole effects persist. Then
mainly Quiet to Unsettled conditions on UT days 03-04 March as
the coronal hole effects wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
03 Mar Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
04 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are possible today,
02 March as a consequence of the continued very low levels of
ionising radiation from the Sun and disturbed geomagnetic conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Mar -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Mar -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
03 Mar -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
04 Mar -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: On UT day 01 March, MUFs were moderately depressed to
mostly near monthly predicted levels over the Australasia region.
During the next three UT days, 02-04 March, mild to moderate
depressions are likely due to continued very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun and current disturbed geomagnetic conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb
Speed: 531 km/sec Density: 8.7 p/cc Temp: 230000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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