[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 28 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 1 10:30:16 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 28 February. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days,
01-03 March. SDO imagery observed a filament eruption in the
SW quadrant around 27/1600UT. LASCO C2 imagery captured a CME
starting 27/1748UT, it is not expected to be geoeffective. The
solar wind speed observed during the last 24 hours was at strongly
enhanced levels, near 580 km/s. This is in response to high speed
solar wind streams associated with a recurrent negative polarity
coronal hole. The total IMF (Bt) started ~ 12 nT then decreased,
currently around 6 nT. The north-south component of IMF (Bz)
underwent several southward excursions up to -10 nT but decreased
to +/- 4nT after 1600UT. Enhanced solar wind speeds are expected
to continue over the next two days as coronal hole effects persist.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Quiet to Active
with an isolated Minor Storm period.
Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A K
Australian Region 13 32234332
Cocos Island 10 31123332
Darwin 12 32234322
Townsville 15 42234332
Learmonth 18 42235333
Alice Springs 17 32235333
Gingin 21 42245433
Canberra 15 32244332
Launceston 21 42245343
Hobart 19 32245342
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Feb :
Macquarie Island 42 33167543
Casey 28 55534333
Mawson 61 55434577
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 43 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 0011 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Mar 20 Unsettled to Active with a possible Minor Storm
period
02 Mar 15 Quiet to Active
03 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 28 February
and is current for 1 Mar only. Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions
with an isolated Minor Storm period were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 28 February. Major Storm periods were observed
in the Antarctic region. The observed disturbed conditions were
caused by HSS associated with the coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to be at Quiet to Active levels on UT days 01-02
March due coronal hole effects. A period of significant southward
Bz component could produce a Minor Storm period over the next
24 hours as the solar wind speed is strongly enhanced. Then mainly
Quiet to Unsettled conditions on UT day 03 March as the coronal
hole effects begin to wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
02 Mar Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
03 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are possible today,
01 March as a consequence of the continued very low levels of
ionising radiation from the Sun and disturbed geomagnetic conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Feb -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Mar -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
02 Mar -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
03 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: On UT day 28 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels over the Australian region. Cocos Island region
experienced moderate enhancements during local night. Sporadic
E layers were observed over some Australian ionosonde stations.
Minor to Moderate MUFs depressions may be observed on UT days
01-02 March due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation
from the Sun and current disturbed geomagnetic conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 12.4 p/cc Temp: 32400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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