[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 March 19 issued 2333 UT on 06 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 7 10:33:08 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 06 March. There
is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible solar
disk, Region 2374 located near N08E13 at 06/2300 UT. Solar activity
is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 07-09
March. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 06 March, the solar wind speed increased from
~~350 km/s and reached 500 km/s at 06/1200 UT, thereafter trended
towards its nominal level. The current solar wind speed is ~400
km/s. The mild enhancement in solar wind speed was thought to
be caused by small patchy equatorial coronal holes. During the
last 24 hours, the total IMF (Bt) ranged between 4 nT and 10
nT. The north-south component of IMF (Bz) ranged between +8 nT
and -8 nT, with no prolonged period of southward Bz. The two
day outlook (UT 07-08 March) is for the solar wind to remain
mostly near its current weakly elevated level in response to
the effects from the small patchy equatorial coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 12313121
Cocos Island 6 12312121
Darwin 5 11312121
Townsville 7 123-3121
Learmonth 8 12313231
Alice Springs 5 12312120
Gingin 9 12313232
Canberra 6 12313120
Launceston 11 13314231
Hobart 6 12313120
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Mar :
Macquarie Island 9 02215120
Casey 18 35523221
Mawson 20 33422354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 2200 0102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Mar 7 Quiet
08 Mar 7 Quiet
09 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 06 March. Unsettled and Active
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. The observed
sporadic disturbed conditions were due to the short-lived moderate
enhancement in solar winds emanating from small patchy equatorial
coronal holes. During the next 2 UT days, 07-08 March, the global
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels
and at times may reach Unsettled levels due to the current equatorial
coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: On UT day 6 March there were mild MUF depressions over
the Southern high latitude regions compared to the monthly predicted
levels due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for today (UT day
7 March) with occasional MUF depressions due to continued low
levels of ionising radiation.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Mar -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Mar -15 Near predicted monthly values
08 Mar -15 Near predicted monthly values
09 Mar -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 06 March, MUFs were mildly depressed to near
monthly predicted levels over most Australian region as a consequence
of very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun. Similar
levels of ionospheric support are expected for the next 3 days
due to continued low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5e+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40e+08 (high fluence)
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 46000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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