[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 June 19 issued 2331 UT on 25 Jun 2019

Wed Jun 26 09:31:14 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 26 JUNE - 28 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jun:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jun             27 Jun             28 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 25 June. 
There were no earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. On UT day 25 June, the solar wind speed varied between 
320 and 365 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 1.5 
nT and 5 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied 
in the range +3/-3.5 nT. The solar wind is expected to become 
moderately enhanced on 26 and 27 June due to the influence of 
a recurrent negative polarity coronal hole, then start to weaken 
on 28 June. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 
3 UT days, 26-28 June.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   10000000
      Cocos Island         0   01010000
      Darwin               1   11101000
      Learmonth            1   10100001
      Alice Springs        0   10000000
      Gingin               0   00000000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           1   10011100
      Hobart               0   00001000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00011000
      Casey                1   11100011
      Mawson               6   21102114
      Davis                6   12211123

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2211 2121     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet levels across 
the Australian and Antarctic regions for the UT day 25 June. 
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to reach Unsettled levels 
on UT days 26 and 27 June due to negative polarity coronal hole 
influences, then decrease to mostly Quiet on 28 June as coronal 
hole effects wane.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day 
25 June. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for the 
next 3 UT days, 26 to 28 June.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
25 Jun    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      2
Jun      -11
Jul      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jun    -8    Near predicted monthly values
27 Jun    -8    Near predicted monthly values
28 Jun    -6    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced at times for 
all regions today, UT day 25 June. Sporadic-E and Spread F occurrences 
were observed over some Australian sites. For UT days 26-28 June, 
MUFs are expected to range mostly near predicted monthly levels.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jun
Speed: 332 km/sec  Density:    7.4 p/cc  Temp:    33700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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