[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 June 19 issued 2342 UT on 26 Jun 2019

Thu Jun 27 09:42:53 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jun             28 Jun             29 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 26 June. 
There is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible 
disk. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 
27-29 June. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the 
available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 26 June, the solar wind 
speed initially varied between 320 and 360 km/s, then began to 
gradually increase after 26/0400 UT, reaching 419 km/s at 26/1809 
UT, currently around 390 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 7 
nT at 26/0602 UT and is currently varying between 3-5 nT. The 
north-south component of the IMF (Bz) had an extended southward 
period in the first half of the UT day 26 June, reaching a minimum 
of -6 nT at 26/0600 UT, currently varying between -4/5 nT. The 
solar wind is expected to continue to be moderately enhanced 
on 27 June due to the influence of a recurrent negative polarity 
coronal hole, then start to weaken on 28-29 June.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11220100
      Cocos Island         1   01110100
      Darwin               3   21220100
      Townsville           3   11220101
      Learmonth            3   11220101
      Alice Springs        2   11120100
      Culgoora             2   11220100
      Gingin               2   11120100
      Canberra             2   01220000
      Launceston           3   11221100
      Hobart               2   01220000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     2   00221000
      Casey                5   22311101
      Mawson              19   23432106
      Davis                5   12321101

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1001 1112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jun     5    Quiet
29 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region for the UT day 26 June. Mainly Quiet to Unsettled 
levels were observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated Active 
and Storm periods at Mawson. Global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT day 27 June due to negative 
polarity coronal hole influences, then decrease to mostly Quiet 
on 28-29 June as coronal hole effects wane.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day 
26 June. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for the 
next 3 UT days, 27-29 June.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 Jun    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      2
Jun      -11
Jul      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values
28 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values
29 Jun    -8    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced at times for 
all regions today, UT day 26 June. Sporadic-E and Spread F occurrences 
were observed over some Australian sites. For UT days 27-29 June, 
MUFs are expected to range mostly near predicted monthly levels.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 337 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    31800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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