[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 June 19 issued 2331 UT on 24 Jun 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 25 09:31:10 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low for UT day 24 June.
A new region, 2742(N04W22) was numbered and a spot developement
was observed near(N05W48). Very Low solar activity is expected
for the next 3 UT days, 25-27 June with a slight chance of an
isolated C-class flare. There were no earth-directed CMEs observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 24 June, the
solar wind speed remained at nominal levels, currently ~ 330
Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 3 nT and 6 nT
and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range
+/- 3 nT. The solar wind is expected to become moderately enhanced
on 25-26 June due influence of a recurrent negative polarity
coronal hole, then start to weaken on 27 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 12011011
Cocos Island 2 12011010
Darwin 2 -2101011
Learmonth 4 23112010
Alice Springs 2 22001010
Gingin 2 12001011
Canberra 2 12001011
Launceston 2 12011011
Hobart 1 01011010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00020000
Casey 3 22111011
Mawson 7 33212021
Davis 3 22211010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 12 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jun 15 Quiet to Active
26 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jun 7 Mostly Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region for the UT day 24 June. Mostly Quiet levels
were observed in Antarctica with isolated Unsettled periods.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach Unsettled levels on
25-26 with possible Active periods today, 25 June due to negative
polarity coronal hole influences, then mostly Quiet on 27 June
as coronal hole effects wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jun -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 2
Jun -11
Jul -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jun -10 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jun -10 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jun -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced at times for
all regions today, 24 June. Sporadic-E and Spread F occurrences
were observed over some Australian ionosonde sites. For 25-27
June, MUFs are expected to range mostly near predicted monthly
levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jun
Speed: 335 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 25700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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