[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 June 19 issued 2331 UT on 21 Jun 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 22 09:31:24 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours.
During this period the solar wind speed stayed mostly between
340 and 390 km/s reaching a peak of around 415 km/s at 1311 UT,
total IMF Bt varied mostly between 2.5 nT and 8.5 nT, the Bz
component of IMF varied between +8 nT and -5 nT and the particle
density varied between 4 ppcc and 20 ppcc. There are no sunspots
on the solar disk visible from the earthside. Due to the effect
of some fragmented negative polarity coronal holes, solar wind
stream may get slightly strengthened at times on UT day 22 June.
Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the
next three UT days (22 to 24 June).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 12112111
Cocos Island 3 12111111
Darwin 3 12111111
Learmonth 4 12112111
Alice Springs 3 121120--
Gingin 4 12012211
Canberra 2 02012001
Launceston 4 12122111
Hobart 2 01012001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jun :
Macquarie Island 2 01122000
Casey 6 23212121
Mawson 9 33222213
Davis 8 23231122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 1232 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jun 4 Quiet
23 Jun 4 Quiet
24 Jun 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity across Australian regions stayed
at quiet levels through UT day 21 June. Global geomagnetic activity
may be expected to stay at quiet levels for the next 3 UT days
(22 to 24 June).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed near the predicted
monthly values with some periods of minor to moderate enhancements
during UT day 21 June. Periods of strong sporadic E were also
observed on low and high latitudes. MUFs may be expected to stay
mostly around the predicted monthly values for the next three
UT days (22 to 24 June).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jun -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 2
Jun -11
Jul -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jun -2 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jun -2 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jun -2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: In the Aus/NZ regions, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
stayed near the predicted monthly values with some periods of
minor to moderate enhancements during UT day 21 June. Periods
of strong sporadic E were also observed in the northern and southern
areas of the region. MUFs in Aus/NZ regions may be expected to
stay around the predicted monthly values for the next three UT
days (22 to 24 June).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 33300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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