[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 June 19 issued 2331 UT on 22 Jun 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 23 09:31:26 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 23 JUNE - 25 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jun: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours.
During this period the solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease
from around 430 km/s to 350 km/s, total IMF Bt varied mostly
between 1 nT and 4.5 nT, the Bz component of IMF varied between
+2 nT and -3 nT and the particle density varied between 3 ppcc
and 7 ppcc. There are no sunspots on the solar disk visible from
the earthside. Due to the return of a negative polarity coronal
hole, solar wind stream may get strengthened from late on UT
day 24 June. Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels
for the next three UT days (23 to 25 June).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Cocos Island 0 01100000
Darwin 2 12100001
Learmonth 1 12100000
Alice Springs 2 22100000
Gingin 1 11110100
Canberra 0 01100000
Launceston 1 11200000
Hobart 0 01100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00200000
Casey 3 12211110
Mawson 7 23222221
Davis 59 03221493
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 1222 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jun 4 Quiet
24 Jun 6 Mostly quiet, unsettled conditions possible during
late hours of the day
25 Jun 12 Quiet to active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity across Australian regions stayed
at quiet levels through UT day 22 June. Global geomagnetic activity
may be expected to stay at quiet levels for the next 2 UT days
(22 to 23 June). There is some possibility of unsettled conditions
during late hours of 23 June due to the effect of a negative
polarity recurrent coronal hole. The effect of this coronal hole
may raise global geomagnetic activity to active levels on 25
June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal
25 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed near the predicted
monthly values with some periods of minor to moderate enhancements
during UT day 22 June. Periods of strong sporadic E were also
observed on low and high latitudes. MUFs may be expected to stay
mostly around the predicted monthly values for the next three
UT days (23 to 25 June) with the possibility of minor to mild
depressions, mainly in high- and some mid-latitude regions, on
25 June due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity on this
day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jun 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 2
Jun -11
Jul -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jun -2 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: In the Aus/NZ regions, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
stayed near the predicted monthly values with some periods of
minor to moderate enhancements during UT day 22 June. Periods
of strong sporadic E were also observed in the northern and southern
areas of the region. MUFs in Aus/NZ regions may be expected to
stay around the predicted monthly values for the next three UT
days (22 to 24 June) with the possibility of minor to mild depressions
on 25 June due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity on this
day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jun
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 8.2 p/cc Temp: 59800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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