[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 June 19 issued 2331 UT on 20 Jun 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 21 09:31:28 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jun             22 Jun             23 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours. 
During this period the solar wind speed stayed mostly between 
325 and 350 km/s reaching a peak of around 400 km/s at 0839 UT, 
total IMF Bt varied mostly between 3 nT and 8 nT, the Bz component 
of IMF varied between +4.5 nT and -7 nT and the particle density 
varied between 6 ppcc and 18 ppcc. There are no sunspots on the 
solar disk visible from the earthside. Due to the effect of some 
fragmented negative polarity coronal holes, solar wind stream 
may get slightly strengthened at times on UT day 21 June. Solar 
activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the next 
three UT days (21 to 23 June).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: Mostly quiet 
with isolated unsettled periods

Estimated Indices 20 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   02221121
      Cocos Island         3   02111121
      Darwin               3   02210111
      Learmonth            5   12221122
      Alice Springs        3   02220111
      Gingin               5   02221222
      Canberra             3   02120111
      Launceston           5   02231121
      Hobart               4   02130111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     5   01241000
      Casey                7   13321122
      Mawson              18   14332154
      Davis               66   19322155

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1111 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jun     7    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
22 Jun     4    Quiet
23 Jun     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity across Australian regions stayed 
mostly at quiet levels with isolated unsettled periods through 
UT day 20 June. Due to the effects of fragmented small negative 
polarity coronal holes, global geomagnetic activity may occasionally 
rise to unsettled levels on UT day 21 June. Global geomagnetic 
activity may be expected to stay at quiet levels on UT days 22 
and 23 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed near the predicted 
monthly values with some periods of minor to moderate enhancements 
during UT day 20 June. Periods of strong sporadic E were also 
observed on low and high latitudes. MUFs may be expected to stay 
mostly around the predicted monthly values for the next three 
UT days (21 to 23 June).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Jun    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      2
Jun      -11
Jul      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jun    -4    Near predicted monthly values
22 Jun    -2    Near predicted monthly values
23 Jun    -2    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: In the Aus/NZ regions, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) 
stayed near the predicted monthly values with some periods of 
minor to moderate enhancements during UT day 20 June. Periods 
of strong sporadic E were also observed in the northern and southern 
areas of the region. MUFs in Aus/NZ regions may be expected to 
stay around the predicted monthly values for the next three UT 
days (21 to 23 June).

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jun
Speed: 323 km/sec  Density:   11.8 p/cc  Temp:    32400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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