[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 June 19 issued 2331 UT on 19 Jun 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 20 09:31:30 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jun             21 Jun             22 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours. 
During this period the solar wind speed stayed between 320 and 
350 km/s, total IMF Bt varied mostly between 1 nT and 6 nT, the 
Bz component of IMF varied between +4 nT and -3 nT and the particle 
density varied between 9 ppcc and 18 ppcc. There are no sunspots 
on the solar disk visible from earthside. Due to the effect of 
some fragmented negative polarity coronal holes, solar wind stream 
may get slightly strengthened at times for the next two UT days 
(20 to 21 June). Solar activity is expected to stay at very low 
levels for the next three UT days (20 to 22 June).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11002100
      Cocos Island         1   10101000
      Darwin               1   11101100
      Townsville           2   11112100
      Learmonth            2   11002100
      Alice Springs        1   01002100
      Culgoora             1   11001---
      Gingin               1   10002100
      Canberra             0   00001100
      Launceston           2   10012200
      Hobart               0   00001100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                3   12101201
      Mawson               4   31211100
      Davis               53   19311100

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1101 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jun     7    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
21 Jun     7    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
22 Jun     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity across Australian regions stayed 
at quiet levels through UT day 19 June. Due to the effects of 
fragmented small negative polarity coronal holes, global geomagnetic 
activity may occasionally rise to unsettled levels on UT days 
20 and 21 June. Global geomagnetic activity may be expected to 
stay at quiet levels on UT day 22 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed near the predicted 
monthly values with some periods of minor to moderate enhancements 
during UT day 19 June. Periods of strong sporadic E were also 
observed on low and high latitudes. MUFs may be expected to stay 
around the predicted monthly values for the next three UT days 
(20 to 22 June).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Jun    -5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      2
Jun      -11
Jul      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values
21 Jun    -4    Near predicted monthly values
22 Jun    -2    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: In the Aus/NZ regions, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) 
stayed near the predicted monthly values with some periods of 
minor to moderate enhancements during UT day 19 June. Periods 
of strong sporadic E were also observed in the northern and southern 
areas of the region. MUFs in Aus/NZ regions may be expected to 
stay around the predicted monthly values for the next three UT 
days (20 to 22 June).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 312 km/sec  Density:    6.6 p/cc  Temp:    25300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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