[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 June 19 issued 2331 UT on 14 Jun 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 15 09:31:27 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 14 June. There
are no sunspots on the visible solar disk. Very Low solar activity
is expected for the next 3 UT days, 15-17 June. There were no
earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery.
On UT day 14 June, the solar wind speed ranged between 420 km/s
and 500 km/s, gradually decreasing on average. The total IMF
(Bt) varied mostly between 3 nT and 8 nT and the north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range +6 nT and -4 nT
without significant periods of negative Bz. For the next two
UT days, 15-16 June, the solar wind is expected to continue to
return to background conditions. The solar wind is expected to
become moderately enhanced on 17 June due the influence of a
patchy weak negative polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: Mostly Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 22222101
Cocos Island 1 11111000
Darwin 4 22111111
Townsville 5 22222101
Learmonth 6 32222101
Alice Springs 3 22211100
Culgoora 4 22221100
Gingin 5 32122101
Canberra 4 22222100
Launceston 5 22222101
Hobart 4 22222100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jun :
Macquarie Island 5 11233000
Casey 7 33222111
Mawson 16 53433111
Davis 10 43322111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 10 1222 3224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jun 5 Quiet
16 Jun 5 Quiet
17 Jun 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region for the UT day 14 June with one Isolated Unsettled
period early UT day. Mostly Quiet geomagnetic activity is expected
for the Australian region, 15-16 June and Quiet to Unsettled
levels with a chance of an isolated Active period 17 June due
to weak coronal hole influence.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jun -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 2
Jun -11
Jul -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jun -10 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun -10 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) was mostly near predicted
monthly values for the Aus/NZ region today, 14 June. Enhanced
MUFs observed at Equatorial region. Sporadic-E and Spread F occurrences
were observed over some Australian ionosonde sites. For 15-17
June, MUFs are expected to range mostly near predicted monthly
levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 419 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 91400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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