[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 June 19 issued 2332 UT on 13 Jun 2019

Fri Jun 14 09:32:31 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jun             15 Jun             16 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 13 June. There 
are no sunspots on the visible solar disk. Very Low solar activity 
is expected for the next 3 UT days, 14-16 June. There were no 
earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery. 
The Earth is still under the influence of moderate solar wind 
stream from a positive polarity northern hemisphere coronal hole. 
The solar wind speed gradually increased, currently around 500 
Km/s. The IMF Btotal varied between 3-9 nT while Bz fluctuated 
around +/- 7 nT with a southward excussion between 1000-1200 
UT. The influence of the coronal hole should start to wane today, 
14 June. On UT days 15-16 June the solar wind speed is expected 
to be mostly near its background levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet with one 
Isolated Unsettled period.

Estimated Indices 13 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11112112
      Cocos Island         3   11112101
      Darwin               4   21112112
      Townsville           5   11222112
      Learmonth            6   12213212
      Alice Springs        3   11112111
      Culgoora             4   11112112
      Gingin               5   02113212
      Canberra             4   11122112
      Launceston           6   11123212
      Hobart               4   11113111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     5   00124200
      Casey                7   12213312
      Mawson              18   23323216
      Davis                7   02332212

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1211 1110     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jun    12    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jun     5    Quiet
16 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region for the UT day 13 June with one Isolated Unsettled 
period around 13/1200UT most likely associated with the Bz southward 
excussion between 1000-1200UT. Geomagnetic activity over the 
Australian region is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels 
with a chance of an isolated Active period today, 14 June due 
to weak coronal hole influences, then mostly at Quiet levels 
on 15-16 June.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly 
MUFs are expected for the next 24 hours.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 Jun   -10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      2
Jun      -11
Jul      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jun   -10    Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun   -10    Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to to slightly enhanced at times 
for all regions today, 13 June. Sporadic-E and Spread F occurrences 
were observed over some Australian ionosonde sites. For 14-16 
June, MUFs are expected to range mostly near predicted monthly 
levels.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 330 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:    32400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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