[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 June 19 issued 2331 UT on 12 Jun 2019

Thu Jun 13 09:31:25 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jun             14 Jun             15 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 12 June. There 
are no sunspots on the visible solar disk. Very Low solar activity 
is expected for the next 3 UT days, 13-15 June. There were no 
earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery. 
During the UT day 12 June, the solar wind speed increased from 
300 km/s to 380 km/s due to arrival of a high speed solar wind 
stream from a northern hemisphere coronal hole. The IMF Btotal 
also increased to 8nT. There were no significant periods of negative 
Bz. The solar wind speed is expected to be moderately enhanced 
today, 13 June due the influence of the coronal hole. On UT days 
14-15 June the solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near 
its background levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11011000
      Cocos Island         1   11010000
      Darwin               2   11111001
      Townsville           2   11112001
      Learmonth            1   10111000
      Alice Springs        1   01011000
      Culgoora             1   11002000
      Gingin               0   00001000
      Canberra             0   00002000
      Launceston           2   11102000
      Hobart               0   00002000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001000
      Casey                2   21111100
      Mawson               5   42111001
      Davis                3   11221110

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1111 1011     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jun    15    Quiet to Active
14 Jun     7    Quiet
15 Jun     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region for the UT day 12 June. Mostly Quiet levels 
were observed in Antarctica with one isolated Active period at 
Mawson station. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at Quiet 
to Unsettled levels with a chance of isolated Active periods 
today, 13 June due to weak coronal hole influences, then mostly 
at Quiet levels on 14-15 June.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly 
MUFs are expected for the next 24 hours.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
12 Jun    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values during the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      2
Jun      -11
Jul      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jun   -10    Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun   -10    Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to to mildly enhanced for all regions 
today, 12 June. Sporadic-E and Spread F occurrences were observed 
over some Australian ionosonde sites. For 13-15 June, MUFs are 
expected to range mostly near predicted monthly levels.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 312 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    18000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Bureau of Meteorology
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