[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 June 19 issued 2333 UT on 11 Jun 2019

Wed Jun 12 09:33:17 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jun             13 Jun             14 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 11 June. There 
are no sunspots on the visible solar disk. Very Low solar activity 
is expected for the next 3 UT days, 12-14 June. There were no 
earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery. 
During the UT day 11 June, the solar wind speed remained at background 
levels, currently around 320km/s. The IMF Btotal varied between 
2-4 nT while Bz varied between +/- 3 nT. The solar wind speed 
is expected become moderately enhanced from today, 12 June due 
the influence of a northern hemisphere coronal hole. Additionally, 
a small slow moving CME associated with a filament eruption starting 
around 07/2134 may have a glancing blow on Earth sometime today, 
12 June but any impacts are expected to be minor.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   11000000
      Cocos Island         0   01000000
      Darwin               1   11000001
      Townsville           2   21100011
      Learmonth            1   01100010
      Alice Springs        0   00000000
      Culgoora             0   11000000
      Gingin               0   00000010
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           0   10000000
      Hobart               0   00000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                2   12100010
      Mawson               9   33100043
      Davis                9   12211044

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1101 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jun    15    Quiet to Active
13 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region on UT day 11 June. Geomagnetic activity is 
expected to increase to Unsettled with possible Active levels 
from today, 12 June due to the arrival of high speed streams 
from a coronal hole and minor impact of a small CME.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly 
MUFs are expected for the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 Jun    -8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values during the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      2
Jun      -11
Jul      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jun   -10    Near predicted monthly values
13 Jun   -10    Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced for all regions 
today, 11 June. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed over some 
Australian ionosonde sites. For 12-14 June, MUFs are expected 
to range mostly near predicted monthly levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 346 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    22300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.