[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 June 19 issued 2332 UT on 10 Jun 2019

Tue Jun 11 09:32:41 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jun             12 Jun             13 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 10 June. There 
are no sunspots on the visible solar disk. Very Low solar activity 
is expected for the next 3 UT days, 11-13 June. There were no 
earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery. 
During the UT day 10 June, the solar wind speed was at background 
levels, varying between 320 and 380 km/s. The IMF Btotal varied 
between 2-4 nT while Bz varied between +/- 3 nT. The solar wind 
speed may become moderately enhanced from late today, 11 June 
due the influence of a northern hemisphere coronal hole. A small 
slow moving CME associated with a filament eruption starting 
around 07/2134 may have a glancing blow on Earth on 12 June but 
any impacts are expected to be minor.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00001010
      Cocos Island         0   00100010
      Darwin               0   00000000
      Townsville           1   01001010
      Learmonth            0   00001010
      Alice Springs        0   01000000
      Culgoora             0   00001000
      Gingin               0   00001010
      Canberra             0   00001000
      Launceston           0   00001010
      Hobart               0   00001000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001000
      Casey                3   22101011
      Mawson               7   32010042
      Davis               10   12120053

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              6   3221 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jun    15    Quiet to Active
13 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region on UT day 10 June. Mostly Quiet levels were 
observed in Antarctica, with one isolated period of Active to 
Minor Storm levels. Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase 
to Unsettled with possible Active levels from late today, 11 
June due to the arrival of high speed streams from a coronal 
hole and minor impact of a small CME.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: On UT day 10 June, mostly normal HF conditions were 
observed over all regions. Similar HF conditions are expected 
over the next 24 hours.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
10 Jun   -10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values during the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      2
Jun      -11
Jul      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jun   -10    Near predicted monthly values
12 Jun   -10    Near predicted monthly values
13 Jun   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced for all regions. 
Sporadic-E occurrences were observed over some Australian ionosonde 
sites. For 11-13 June, MUFs are expected to range mostly near 
predicted monthly levels.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 412 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    56700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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