[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 June 19 issued 2339 UT on 09 Jun 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 10 09:39:53 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 10 JUNE - 12 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jun: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 9 June. There
are no sunspots on the visible solar disk. A small CME was observed
in STEREO A COR2 imagery starting around 08/0109 UT, mostly likely
associated with a filament eruption near the centre of the solar
disk that was observed in GONG Halpha images starting around
07/2134 UT. Initial modelling shows that the CME is expected
to arrive at Earth on 12 June. Very Low solar activity is expected
for the next 3 UT days, 10-12 June. During the UT day 9 June,
the solar wind speed peaked at 474 km/s at 09/0434 UT then decreased,
currently around 370 km/s. The IMF Btotal started the UT day
varying around 10 nT then decreased, currently around 4 nT. Bz
started the UT day varying between +/-6 nT, then decreased after
09/0400 UT, currently varying between -4 to +3 nT. On UT day
10 June, the solar wind is expected to continue to return to
background conditions. The solar wind is expected to become moderately
enhanced later on 11 June due the influence of a northern hemisphere
coronal hole and on 12 June due the possible arrival of a small
CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 21111100
Cocos Island 2 21111100
Darwin 2 21101101
Townsville 4 32111110
Learmonth 4 22210111
Alice Springs 5 21------
Culgoora 2 21101100
Gingin 4 22111210
Canberra 2 21101100
Launceston 3 22111110
Hobart 2 21101100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 11011000
Casey 7 33220211
Mawson 18 45331233
Davis 11 33331231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16 1102 3454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jun 12 Quiet to Unsettled, with possible Active periods
12 Jun 13 Quiet to Unsettled, with possible Active periods
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mainly Quiet levels across
the Australian region on UT day 9 June. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled
levels were observed in Antarctica, with a period of Active to
Minor Storm levels at Mawson early in the UT day. For the next
UT day, 10 June, the global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mainly at Quiet to Unsettled levels. Geomagnetic activity
may increase to Active levels later on UT day 11 June or on 12
June due to the arrival of high speed streams from a coronal
hole and the possible impact of a small CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: During the last 24 hours maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) were mostly near predicted monthly values and mildly enhanced.
Mild to moderate depressions were also observed across the mid
and high latitude regions in the Northern hemisphere. Variable
HF conditions are expected for 10 June. Occasional enhancements
are possible across all latitudes. For the Northern hemisphere,
mildly to moderately depressed MUFs are likely for mid to high
latitudes. For the Southern hemisphere, near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected with disturbed ionospheric support for high
latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jun 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 2
Jun -11
Jul -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jun -10 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced ones for Australian
regions and Antarctica. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed
over some Australian ionosonde sites. For 10-12 June, MUFs are
expected to range mostly near predicted monthly levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jun
Speed: 299 km/sec Density: 11.3 p/cc Temp: 25500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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