[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 21 Jul 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 22 09:31:32 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jul             23 Jul             24 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 21 July. 
The solar disk visible from the Earthside is spotless. There 
were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. On UT day 21 July, the solar wind speed stayed between 
315 km/s and 360 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 
3.5 nT and 9 nT, the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied 
mostly in the range +4/-4 nT. The particle density varied between 
1 ppcc and 6 ppcc during most parts of this day. Very low solar 
activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 22-24 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   01110222
      Cocos Island         5   01111223
      Darwin               4   11111122
      Townsville           5   11110223
      Learmonth            4   01110223
      Alice Springs        3   10110222
      Gingin               5   01110323
      Canberra             0   00000011
      Launceston           5   01221222
      Hobart               3   01121211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     3   00220012
      Mawson              27   12321347
      Davis                8   02311332

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1010 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jul     7    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled conditions possible
23 Jul     7    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled conditions possible
24 Jul     7    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled conditions possible

COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in 
the Australian region on UT day 20 July. Global geomagnetic activity 
may be expected to stay mostly at quiet levels for the next 3 
UT days (22 to 24 July) with a chance of isolated unsettled conditions 
throughout this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near 
predicted monthly values with periods of mild to moderate enhancements 
on UT day 21 July. MUFs are expected to stay mostly near the 
predicted monthly values for the next three UT days (22 to 24 
July).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jul    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -4
Jul      -12
Aug      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jul    -4    Near predicted monthly values
23 Jul    -4    Near predicted monthly values
24 Jul    -4    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near 
predicted monthly values with periods of mild to moderate enhancements 
across the Australian/NZ regions on UT day 21 July. Sporadic-E 
and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. MUFs 
in this region are expected to stay mostly near the predicted 
monthly values for the next three UT days (22 to 24 July).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: 323 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    13000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list