[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 20 Jul 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 21 09:31:22 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jul             22 Jul             23 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 20 July. 
The solar disk visible from the Earthside is spotless. There 
were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. On UT day 20 July, the solar wind speed stayed between 
315 km/s and 330 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 
1 nT and 5 nT, the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied 
mostly in the range +3/-1 nT. The particle density varied between 
0.2 ppcc and 3.5 ppcc during most parts of this day. Very low 
solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days,21-23 July.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   01010000
      Cocos Island         0   01000010
      Darwin               2   10111011
      Townsville           2   11111011
      Learmonth            1   01011000
      Alice Springs        0   01000000
      Gingin               0   00000000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           0   01010000
      Hobart               0   01010000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Mawson               1   21000000
      Davis                2   11221000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1101 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jul     5    Quiet
22 Jul     5    Quiet
23 Jul     7    Mostly quiet, some unsettled periods possible

COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in 
the Australian region on UT day 20 July. Global geomagnetic activity 
may be expected to stay mostly at quiet levels for the next 3 
UT days (21 to 23 July) with a chance of unsettled conditions 
on UT day 23 July.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near 
predicted monthly values with periods of mild to moderate enhancements 
on UT day 20 July. MUFs are expected to stay mostly near the 
predicted monthly values for the next three UT days (21 to 23 
July).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Jul    -5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -4
Jul      -12
Aug      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jul    -4    Near predicted monthly values
22 Jul    -4    Near predicted monthly values
23 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near 
predicted monthly values with periods of mild to moderate enhancements 
across the Australian/NZ regions on UT day 20 July. Sporadic-E 
and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. MUFs 
in this region are expected to stay mostly near the predicted 
monthly values for the next three UT days (21 to 23 July).

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 355 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    38500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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