[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 July 19 issued 2332 UT on 22 Jul 2019

Tue Jul 23 09:32:39 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jul             24 Jul             25 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 22 July. 
There is currently one numbered region on the visible solar disk, 
Region 2745 located at N01W33. Very Low solar activity is expected 
for the next 3 UT days, 23-25 July. There were no Earth-directed 
CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 
22 July, the solar wind speed varied between 330 and 430 km/s. 
The mild enhancements are in response to multiple small coronal 
holes. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 1-10 nT. The north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) mostly varied between +9 and -7 nT, 
reaching a minimum of -7 nT (southward) at 22/0400 UT and remained 
southward for few hours. The solar wind speed is expected to 
be mainly at background to mildly enhanced levels for the next 
3 UT days, 23-25 July.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22222111
      Cocos Island         3   11222001
      Darwin               6   22232111
      Townsville           7   21332111
      Learmonth            7   22332111
      Alice Springs        6   22232111
      Gingin               4   12221111
      Canberra             2   11221000
      Launceston           5   22221111
      Hobart               3   12221100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     4   11231100
      Mawson              20   33443135
      Davis               12   22432024

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   1012 1243     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jul     7    Quiet
24 Jul     7    Quiet
25 Jul     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in 
the Australian region on UT day 22 July. Quiet to Active levels 
were observed in the Antarctic region. The observed disturbed 
periods in the high latitude regions is due to the sustained 
southward Bz conditions. Global geomagnetic activity may be expected 
to stay mostly at quiet levels for the next 3 UT days (23 to 
25 July) with a chance of isolated unsettled conditions throughout 
this period.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days (23-25 July).

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
22 Jul     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -4
Jul      -12
Aug      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
24 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
25 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near 
predicted monthly values with periods of mild to moderate enhancements 
across the Australian/NZ regions on UT day 22 July. Sporadic-E 
and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. MUFs 
in this region are expected to stay mostly near the predicted 
monthly values for the next three UT days (23 to 25 July).

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 334 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    38800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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