[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 13 Jul 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 14 09:31:23 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 13 July.
The visible solar disk is spotless, Very Low solar activity is
expected for the next 3 UT days,14-16 July. There were no Earth-directed
CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day
13 July, the solar wind speed varied around 450 Km/s. The total
IMF (Bt) varied in the range 3-7 nT. The north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range +/-4 nT. The solar wind is
expected to continue to decrease but may increase again from
late today, 14 July due to the influence of a small negative
polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 11121321
Cocos Island 2 01111120
Darwin 4 11121221
Townsville 6 12221321
Learmonth 5 01121231
Alice Springs 5 01121321
Culgoora 5 11121321
Gingin 6 11012331
Canberra 2 00110210
Launceston 6 21122321
Hobart 5 10121321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jul :
Macquarie Island 5 00032310
Mawson 20 21333363
Davis 26 22332273
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1122 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jul 12 Quit to Unsettled
15 Jul 15 Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of an isolated
Active period.
16 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled levels
across the Australian region for the UT day 13 July. Quiet to
Unsettled levels are expected for 14-16 July due to the influence
of a small negative polarity coronal hole. A period of significant
southward Bz component could produce an isolated Active period
on 15 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
13 July. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT
days, 14-16 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jul -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -4
Jul -12
Aug -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Jul 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly near
predicted monthly values. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences
were observed over some sites. Similar HF conditions are expected
today, 14 July. Mildly Enhanced MUFs may be observed 15-16 July
due to predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 462 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 71600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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