[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 12 Jul 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 13 09:31:26 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jul             14 Jul             15 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 12 July. 
The visible solar disk is spotless, Very Low solar activity is 
expected for the next 3 UT days,13-15 July. There were no Earth-directed 
CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 
12 July, the solar wind speed continued decreasing, currently 
around 450 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 4-6 nT. 
The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range 
+3/-5 nT, mostly neutral. The solar wind is expected to continue 
to decrease on day 1, 13 Jul and much of day 2, 14 July as positive 
polarity coronal hole effects wane then become enhanced late 
on 14 July due to the influence of another negative polarity 
coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 12 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11232010
      Cocos Island         2   01211000
      Darwin               2   11221000
      Townsville           6   11332011
      Learmonth            4   02232010
      Alice Springs        3   11231000
      Culgoora             5   11232011
      Gingin               3   01222011
      Launceston           8   11343011
      Hobart               5   11242000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     8   00253000
      Mawson              19   34432135
      Davis               18   13431016

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   3332 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jul     5    Quiet
14 Jul    12    Quiet to Active
15 Jul    15    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled levels 
across the Australian region for the UT day 12 July with an isolated 
Active period over Hobart region. Storm levels were observed 
in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic activity is expected to 
be at Quiet levels today, 13 July and most of the UT day 14 July 
as positive polarity coronal hole effects wane, then may reach 
Unsettled to Active levels from late UT day, 14 July due to another 
negative polarity coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day 
12 July. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT 
days, 13-15 July.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jul    -5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -4
Jul      -12
Aug      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced ones during 
UT day 12 July. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed 
over some sites. MUFs are expected to range mostly near predicted 
monthly levels for UT days 13-14 July. For 15 July, MUFs are 
expected to range mostly between near predicted monthly values 
to moderately enhanced ones; the enhanced levels are due to predicted 
increase in geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 533 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:   198000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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