[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 11 Jul 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 12 09:31:30 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jul             13 Jul             14 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 11 July. 
The visible solar disk is spotless, Very Low solar activity is 
expected for the next 3 UT days,12-14 July. There were no Earth-directed 
CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 
11 July, the solar wind speed continued decreasing, currently 
around 480 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 3-6 nT. 
The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range 
+3/-6 nT. The solar wind is expected to continue to decrease 
over the next two days, 12-13 July as coronal hole effects wane 
then may become weakly enhanced late on 14 July due to the influence 
of another negative polarity coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 11 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12321100
      Cocos Island         2   21210000
      Darwin               3   12211101
      Townsville           5   12321101
      Learmonth            3   22221000
      Alice Springs        3   22211100
      Culgoora             4   12311100
      Gingin               4   22221101
      Launceston           7   12422101
      Hobart               6   12422100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    10   12532100
      Casey                6   23322001
      Mawson              35   75432143

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               8   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             19   2554 3212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jul     7    Mostly Quiet
13 Jul     5    Quiet
14 Jul    12    Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of an isolated 
                Active period.

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled levels 
across the Australian region for the UT day 11 July with an isolated 
Active period at Hobart station due high speed solar wind stream 
associated with a positive polarity coronal hole. Geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels on 12-13 then 
may increase again late on 14 July to Unsettled levels with a 
chance of an isolated Active period due to the possible influence 
of a another weak coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day 
11 July. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT 
days, 12-14 July.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Jul    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -4
Jul      -12
Aug      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) varied mostly near 
predicted monthly values for all regions during UT day 11 July. 
Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. 
Similar conditions are expected for UT days 12-14 July.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 596 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   219000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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