[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 10 Jul 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 11 09:31:35 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jul             12 Jul             13 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 10 July. 
The visible solar disk is spotless, Very Low solar activity is 
expected for the next 3 UT days,11-13 July. There were no Earth-directed 
CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 
10 July, the solar wind speed remained at very strong levels 
reaching a maximum of 695 km/s at 10/0237UT, then began to gradually 
decrease, currently around 570 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) reached 
a peak of 11 nT at 10/0623UT, currently varying around 5 nT. 
The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) reached a minimum of 
-8 nT at 10/0633UT, then varied between +/-4 nT. The solar wind 
is expected to continue to decrease over the next two days, 11-12 
July as coronal hole effects wane.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   13443211
      Cocos Island         8   13332210
      Darwin              11   13433211
      Townsville          13   23443211
      Learmonth           15   13543211
      Alice Springs       12   13443211
      Culgoora            12   23443210
      Gingin              12   13443211
      Canberra            12   13443210
      Launceston          18   23553211
      Hobart              12   13443210    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    26   14565200
      Casey               12   23343212
      Mawson              34   35653325
      Davis               14   33433321

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            7   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        9   (Quiet)
      Gingin              64   (Active)
      Canberra            54   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             18   4332 2353     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jul    15    Quiet to Active
12 Jul     7    Mostly Quiet
13 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Active levels across 
the Australian region for the UT day 10 July with an isolated 
Minor Storm period between 10/03-06TU at some locations due high 
speed solar wind stream associated with a positive polarity coronal 
hole. Major Storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region. 
Geomagnetic activity over the Australian region is expected to 
be at Quiet to Unsettled levels today 11 July due to coronal 
hole influences, then mostly at Quiet levels on 12-13 July. A 
period of significant southward Bz component could produce Active 
levels today, 11 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day 
10 July. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT 
days, 11-13 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jul     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -4
Jul      -12
Aug      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced ones for 
all regions during UT day 10 July. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences 
were observed over some sites. For UT days 11-13 July, MUFs are 
expected to range mostly near predicted monthly levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 443 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:   166000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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