[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 09 Jul 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 10 09:31:39 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 9 July. The
visible solar disk is spotless again, Very Low solar activity
is expected for the next 3 UT days,10-12 July. There were no
Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery.
On UT day 9 July, the solar wind speed gradually increased, starting
around 400 km/s reaching a maximum of 630 km/s at 09/2047UT due
high speed solar wind stream associated with a recurrent positive
polarity coronal hole. The total IMF (Bt) reached a peak of 13
nT at 09/1827UT, currently varying around 7 nT. The north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) reached a minimum of -11 nT at 09/
1846UT, then varied between +/-3 nT later in the UT day. The
solar wind is expected to remain enhanced on 10-11 July due to
the influence of the coronal hole, then start to weaken on 12
July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
with an isolated Active period.
Estimated Indices 09 Jul : A K
Australian Region 9 22232232
Cocos Island 8 21222142
Darwin 8 22222232
Townsville 10 32322232
Learmonth 11 22232243
Alice Springs 8 21232232
Culgoora 8 22222232
Gingin 11 21232243
Canberra 9 22232232
Launceston 12 22332243
Hobart 8 12232232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jul :
Macquarie Island 12 11343332
Casey 13 22222253
Mawson 36 45332374
Davis 31 23333374
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2201 1133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jul 15 Quiet to Active.
11 Jul 12 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jul 7 Mostly Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled levels
across the Australian region for the UT day 09 July with one
isolated Active period due high speed solar wind stream associated
with a positive polarity coronal hole. Active to Storm levels
were observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic activity over
the Australian region is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled
levels on 10-11 July due to coronal hole influences, then mostly
at Quiet levels on 12 July. A period of significant southward
Bz component could produce Active levels today, 10 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
9 July. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT
days, 10-12 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jul 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -4
Jul -12
Aug -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jul -10 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul -10 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced ones for all
regions during UT day 9 July. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences
were observed over some sites. For UT days 10-12 July, MUFs are
expected to range mostly near predicted monthly levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 316 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 15100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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