[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 08 Jul 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 9 09:31:31 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Jul             10 Jul             11 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 8 July. There 
is currently one active region on the visible solar disk, AR2744(S27E30) 
remained stable and quiet. Very Low solar activity is expected 
for the next 3 UT days, 9-11 July. There were no Earth-directed 
CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 
8 July, the solar wind speed remained near its background levels 
of 300 Km/s until 08/1830UT then increased to 400 km/s due to 
arrival of high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent positive 
polarity coronal hole. The total IMF (Bt) also increased, currently 
varying around 20 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) 
was mostly northward, reaching 18nT at 08/2217UT. The solar wind 
is expected to continue to be moderately enhanced on 9-10 July 
due to the influence of the coronal hole, then start to weaken 
on 11 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 08 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11000032
      Cocos Island         3   11100032
      Darwin               3   11000032
      Townsville           4   11100033
      Learmonth            4   11000033
      Alice Springs        3   10000032
      Culgoora             3   11000032
      Gingin               3   11000032
      Canberra             2   10000022
      Launceston           3   11000032
      Hobart               3   21000022    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     1   00010012
      Casey                3   21100122
      Mawson              14   53210134
      Davis               14   32310054

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1121 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Jul    15    Quiet to Active
10 Jul    12    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jul     7    Mostly Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region for the UT day 08 July with one Isolated Unsettled 
period around 08/1800UT due to the arrival of the solar wind 
stream from a positive polarity coronal hole. Active to Minor 
Storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic 
activity over the Australian region is expected to be at Quiet 
to Unsettled levels with a chance of an isolated Active period 
on 9-10 July due to weak coronal hole influences, then mostly 
at Quiet levels on 11 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day 
8 July. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT 
days, 9-11 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Jul    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -4
Jul      -12
Aug      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Jul   -10    Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul   -10    Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced ones for all 
Australian regions during UT day 8 July. Sporadic-E and Spread-F 
occurrences were observed over some Australian sites. For UT 
days 9-11 July, MUFs are expected to range mostly near predicted 
monthly levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 348 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    40800 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list