[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 08 Jul 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 9 09:31:31 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 8 July. There
is currently one active region on the visible solar disk, AR2744(S27E30)
remained stable and quiet. Very Low solar activity is expected
for the next 3 UT days, 9-11 July. There were no Earth-directed
CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day
8 July, the solar wind speed remained near its background levels
of 300 Km/s until 08/1830UT then increased to 400 km/s due to
arrival of high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent positive
polarity coronal hole. The total IMF (Bt) also increased, currently
varying around 20 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz)
was mostly northward, reaching 18nT at 08/2217UT. The solar wind
is expected to continue to be moderately enhanced on 9-10 July
due to the influence of the coronal hole, then start to weaken
on 11 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11000032
Cocos Island 3 11100032
Darwin 3 11000032
Townsville 4 11100033
Learmonth 4 11000033
Alice Springs 3 10000032
Culgoora 3 11000032
Gingin 3 11000032
Canberra 2 10000022
Launceston 3 11000032
Hobart 3 21000022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 00010012
Casey 3 21100122
Mawson 14 53210134
Davis 14 32310054
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1121 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jul 15 Quiet to Active
10 Jul 12 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jul 7 Mostly Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region for the UT day 08 July with one Isolated Unsettled
period around 08/1800UT due to the arrival of the solar wind
stream from a positive polarity coronal hole. Active to Minor
Storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic
activity over the Australian region is expected to be at Quiet
to Unsettled levels with a chance of an isolated Active period
on 9-10 July due to weak coronal hole influences, then mostly
at Quiet levels on 11 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
8 July. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT
days, 9-11 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jul -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -4
Jul -12
Aug -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jul -10 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul -10 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced ones for all
Australian regions during UT day 8 July. Sporadic-E and Spread-F
occurrences were observed over some Australian sites. For UT
days 9-11 July, MUFs are expected to range mostly near predicted
monthly levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 40800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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