[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 07 Jul 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 8 09:31:14 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 7 July. There
is currently one active region on the visible solar disk, AR2744;
it produced only B-class flares. Very Low solar activity is expected
for the next 3 UT days, 8-10 July. There were no Earth-directed
CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day
8 July, the solar wind speed varied near its background levels,
330-350 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) and its north-south component
(Bz) varied in the ranges 1-5 nT and +2/-5 nT, respectively.
During the next UT day, 8 July, the solar wind speed is expected
to remain at its background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11110011
Cocos Island 1 00010111
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 3 11111012
Learmonth 3 11021111
Alice Springs 1 11110001
Culgoora 1 00110011
Gingin 2 11010112
Canberra 1 00110011
Launceston 2 01111011
Hobart 1 01010011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 5 12121122
Mawson 14 22223235
Davis 17 12232136
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1211 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jul 7 Quiet
09 Jul 9 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australians regions and mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels were
observed in Antarctica during the UT day 7 July. On 8 July global
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels.
Then geomagnetic activity may reach Unsettled levels due to coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
7 July. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT
days, 8-10 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jul 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -4
Jul -12
Aug -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced ones for all
Australian regions during UT day 7 July. Sporadic-E occurrences
were observed over all Australian sites and in Antarctica. Similar
HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT days, 8-10 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 352 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 44500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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