[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 14 Jul 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 15 09:31:24 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 14 July.
The visible solar disk is spotless, Very Low solar activity is
expected for the next 3 UT days,15-17 July. There were no Earth-directed
CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day
14 July, the solar wind speed remained around 430 Km/s. The total
IMF (Bt) varied in the range 2-5 nT. The north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range +/-2 nT, mostly neutral.
The solar wind speed is expected to become moderately enhanced
from today, 15 July due to the influence of a small negative
polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11101111
Cocos Island 3 11111111
Darwin 2 11101111
Townsville 3 21101112
Learmonth 4 21211112
Alice Springs 3 13101101
Culgoora 2 11101111
Gingin 3 2-210012
Canberra 0 00100001
Launceston 4 21201112
Hobart 1 11100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 10100011
Mawson 19 43211236
Davis 21 43322136
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 7 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1112 1322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jul 15 Quiet to Active
16 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region for the UT day 14 July. Quiet to Unsettled
levels are expected for 15-17 July due to the influence of a
small negative polarity coronal hole. A period of significant
southward Bz component could produce an isolated Active period,
today, 15 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
14 July. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT
days, 15-17 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jul -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -4
Jul -12
Aug -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jul 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly near
predicted monthly values. Mildly enhanced MUFs observed Southern
AUS/NZ regions local night. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences
were observed over some sites. Similar conditions are expected
for UT days 15-17 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 448 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 89000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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