[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 04 Jul 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 5 09:31:26 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jul             06 Jul             07 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 4 July. There 
are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disk. Very Low 
solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 5-7 July. 
There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. On UT day 4 July, the solar wind speed varied between 
340 and 370 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 4-8 
nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range 
+3/-4 nT. During the next UT day, 5 July, the solar wind speed 
is expected to increase to moderately elevated levels due to 
arrival of the high-speed solar wind stream associated with a 
recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   01002211
      Cocos Island         1   01001111
      Darwin               3   11102211
      Townsville           4   01103211
      Learmonth            4   01103221
      Alice Springs        3   11002211
      Culgoora             2   01002211
      Gingin               4   01003221
      Canberra             2   00002201
      Launceston           4   01003222
      Hobart               2   01002211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     2   00002201
      Casey                6   02003322
      Mawson               7   12111224
      Davis                6   03221212

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   1012 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jul    22    Active
06 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jul     7    Quiet

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 3 July and 
is current for 5 Jul only. Geomagnetic activity was mostly at 
Quiet levels across the Australian region and in Antarctica during 
the UT day 4 July. On 5 July global geomagnetic activity may 
reach Active and Minor Storm levels due to arrival of the corotating 
interaction region and high-speed solar wind stream associated 
with a recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole. Then geomagnetic 
activity is expected to decline to Unsettled and Quiet levels 
as the coronal hole effects wane.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day 
4 July. Moderately degraded HF conditions are expected for 5 
July due to predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jul    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -4
Jul      -12
Aug      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jul     8    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values for all regions during UT day 4 July. Sporadic-E 
occurrences were observed over all Australian sites and in Antarctica. 
For 5 July, MUFs are expected to range mostly between near predicted 
monthly values to mildly enhanced ones; the enhanced levels are 
due to predicted increase in geomagnetic activity. For UT days 
6-7 July, MUFs are expected to range mostly near predicted monthly 
levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 348 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    38800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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