[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 03 Jul 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 4 09:31:23 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jul             05 Jul             06 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 3 July. There 
are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disk. Very Low 
solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 4-6 July. 
There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. On UT day 3 July, the solar wind speed varied between 
300 and 380 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 3-7 
nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range 
+3/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly at background 
levels for the next UT day, 4 July.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   00111210
      Cocos Island         3   01211210
      Darwin               3   01111211
      Townsville           4   11211211
      Learmonth            3   00221210
      Alice Springs        2   01111210
      Culgoora             1   00111110
      Gingin               2   00111210
      Canberra             1   00110110
      Launceston           2   00111210
      Hobart               2   00111210    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     1   00010110
      Casey                4   02212210
      Mawson               8   01223233
      Davis                6   02223112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2111 2122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jul     6    Quiet
05 Jul    22    Active
06 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 3 July and 
is current for 5 Jul only. Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet 
levels across the Australian region for the UT day 3 July. Quiet 
and Unsettled levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global 
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels 
during the next UT day, 4 July. On 5 July global geomagnetic 
activity may reach Active and Minor Storm levels due to arrival 
of the corotating interaction region and high-speed solar wind 
stream associated with a recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole. 
Then geomagnetic activity is expected to decline to Quiet and 
Unsettled levels as the coronal hole effects wane.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day 
3 July. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next UT day, 
4 July. Moderately degraded HF conditions are expected for 5 
July due to predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Jul    -0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -4
Jul      -12
Aug      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
05 Jul     8    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values for all regions during UT day 3 July. Sporadic-E 
occurrences were observed over all Australian sites. For UT days 
4 and 6 July, MUFs are expected to range mostly near predicted 
monthly levels. Moderately enhanced MUFs are expected for 5 July 
due to predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 316 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    26700 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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