[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 02 Jul 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 3 09:31:25 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 2 July. There
are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disk. Very Low
solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 3-5 July.
There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 2 July, the solar wind speed varied between
300 and 370 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 1-6
nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range
+/-5 nT and was mostly negative. The solar wind speed is expected
to be mainly at background levels for the next 2 UT days, 3-4
July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11111120
Cocos Island 2 00110120
Darwin 2 11111110
Townsville 3 11111111
Learmonth 4 11221120
Alice Springs 3 12111120
Culgoora 2 11111110
Gingin 5 22111230
Canberra 3 11121110
Launceston 4 11122210
Hobart 3 11122110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 00132110
Casey 6 32220121
Mawson 22 53221255
Davis 17 43322253
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 3322 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jul 5 Quiet
04 Jul 6 Quiet
05 Jul 22 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region for the UT day 2 July. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled
levels were observed in the Antarctic region, although there
were two periods with Active to Minor Storm levels. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels during the
next 2 UT days, 3-4 July. On 5 July global geomagnetic activity
may reach Active and Minor Storm levels due to arrival of the
corotating interaction region and high-speed solar wind stream
associated with a recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
2 July. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 2 UT
days, 3-4 July. Moderately degraded HF conditions are expected
for 5 July due to predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jul 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -4
Jul -12
Aug -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jul 8 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced ones for all
regions during UT day 2 July. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed
over some Australian sites. For UT days 3-4 July, MUFs are expected
to range mostly near predicted monthly levels. Moderately enhanced
MUFs are expected for 5 July due to predicted increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 55600 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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