[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 01 Jul 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 2 09:31:25 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jul             03 Jul             04 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 1 July. There 
are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disk. Very Low 
solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 2-4 July. 
There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. On UT day 1 July, the solar wind speed varied between 
330 and 380 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 1-9 
nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) mostly varied between 
+2 and -7 nT, reaching a minimum of -7 nT at 01/0300 UT. The 
solar wind speed is expected to be mainly at background levels 
for the next 3 UT days, 2-4 July.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   23211201
      Cocos Island         3   12211200
      Darwin               5   23211201
      Townsville           6   23212211
      Learmonth            7   23211311
      Alice Springs        5   23211200
      Culgoora             5   13211201
      Gingin               4   12211211
      Canberra             4   12211201
      Launceston           7   23212301
      Hobart               5   13212200    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     4   02222200
      Casey                7   23322200
      Mawson              28   45522216
      Davis                9   24322211

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   3000 1102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jul     5    Quiet
03 Jul     5    Quiet
04 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet levels across 
the Australian region for the UT day 1 July, with one Unsettled 
period. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels were observed in the 
Antarctic region, with one Quiet to Minor Storm period. Global 
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels 
during the next 3 UT days, 2-4 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day 
1 July. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT 
days, 2-4 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Jul     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -4
Jul      -12
Aug      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
04 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced ones for all 
regions during UT day 1 July. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences 
were observed over some Australian sites. For UT days 2-4 July, 
MUFs are expected to range mostly near predicted monthly levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 317 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    38900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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