[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 01 Jul 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 2 09:31:25 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 1 July. There
are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disk. Very Low
solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 2-4 July.
There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 1 July, the solar wind speed varied between
330 and 380 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 1-9
nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) mostly varied between
+2 and -7 nT, reaching a minimum of -7 nT at 01/0300 UT. The
solar wind speed is expected to be mainly at background levels
for the next 3 UT days, 2-4 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 23211201
Cocos Island 3 12211200
Darwin 5 23211201
Townsville 6 23212211
Learmonth 7 23211311
Alice Springs 5 23211200
Culgoora 5 13211201
Gingin 4 12211211
Canberra 4 12211201
Launceston 7 23212301
Hobart 5 13212200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jul :
Macquarie Island 4 02222200
Casey 7 23322200
Mawson 28 45522216
Davis 9 24322211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 3000 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jul 5 Quiet
03 Jul 5 Quiet
04 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet levels across
the Australian region for the UT day 1 July, with one Unsettled
period. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels were observed in the
Antarctic region, with one Quiet to Minor Storm period. Global
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels
during the next 3 UT days, 2-4 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
1 July. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT
days, 2-4 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jul 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -4
Jul -12
Aug -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced ones for all
regions during UT day 1 July. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences
were observed over some Australian sites. For UT days 2-4 July,
MUFs are expected to range mostly near predicted monthly levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 317 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 38900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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