[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 June 19 issued 2331 UT on 30 Jun 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 1 09:31:30 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 30 June.
There is currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the visible
solar disk. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next
3 UT days, 1-3 July. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 30 June, the
solar wind speed varied between 300-350 km/s. The total IMF (Bt)
varied between 2-5 nT for most of the UT day, but reached a peak
of 6.3 nT at 30/2227 UT. The north-south component of the IMF
(Bz) mostly varied between +/-4 nT, reaching a minimum of -4.5
nT at 30/2307 UT. The solar wind is expected to be mainly at
background levels for the next 3 UT days, 1-3 July, but may become
weakly enhanced on 1 July due to the influence of a small negative
polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 10001101
Cocos Island 0 10000100
Darwin 1 11001101
Townsville 1 11001101
Learmonth 2 20001111
Alice Springs 2 21001101
Culgoora 1 10001101
Gingin 2 20000111
Canberra 0 10001000
Launceston 1 10001101
Hobart 1 10001100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 2 22000111
Mawson 6 31000033
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1010 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jul 7 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Jul 5 Quiet
03 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region for the UT day 30 June. Mainly Quiet levels
were observed in the Antarctic region, with some Unsettled periods.
Global geomagnetic activity may increase to Quiet to Unsettled
levels on 1 July due to the possible influence of a small coronal
hole, returning to mainly Quiet on 2-3 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
30 June. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for the
next 3 UT days, 1-3 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jun -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 2
Jun -11
Jul -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced at times for
all regions today, UT day 30 June. Sporadic-E and Spread F occurrences
were observed over some Australian sites. For UT days 1-3 July,
MUFs are expected to range mostly near predicted monthly levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 329 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 34500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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