[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 25 10:30:18 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 24 January. There
is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible solar
disk, Region 2733, located N06W03 at 24/2300UT. Solar activity
is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 25-27
January, with a remote chance of C-class flare. No Earth directed
CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT
day 24 January, the solar wind speed increased further to ~625
km/s in response to the fast speed streams associated with a
recurrent positive polarity equatorial coronal hole. During this
period, the total IMF (Bt) ranged between 3nT and 10 nT. The
north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between -7nT to
7 nT for most of the UT day, with few short-lived periods of
significant southward Bz conditions. The solar wind is expected
to remain near these moderately elevated levels today (UT day
25 January) as the effects of the coronal hole persist. Expect
solar wind speed to start declining from UT day 26 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 23321233
Cocos Island 7 22211232
Darwin 7 22211232
Townsville 11 23322233
Learmonth 12 33322233
Alice Springs 8 23221232
Culgoora 9 23311223
Gingin 11 32322233
Canberra 10 23311233
Launceston 12 33322233
Hobart 9 23311232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jan :
Macquarie Island 9 22311233
Casey 26 45543234
Mawson 31 54433346
Davis 24 43533335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 1213 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 24 January. Unsettled to Minor
storm conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. The observed
disturbed conditions are because the earth is under the influence
of moderated elevated solar wind speed associated with the equatorial
coronal hole. UT day 25 January is expected to be mainly Quiet
to Unsettled and at times reaching Active levels as the coronal
hole effects persist. Then mainly Quiet to Unsettled conditions
are expected for UT day 26 January as the coronal hole effects
begin to wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: On UT day 24 January, there were MUF depressions over
the local day time in the Southern high latitude regions compared
to the monthly predicted levels due to very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun and recent geomagnetic activity. Similar
HF conditions are expected for today, UT day 25 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jan -20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 24 January, MUFs were slightly depressed over
most Australian region as the aftermath of the recent geomagnetic
disturbance associated with the coronal hole. Near predicted
to depressed MUFs are expected for the next two UT days (25-26
January), as a consequence of very low levels of ionising radiation
from the Sun and recent disturbed geomagnetic conditions associated
with the coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 428 km/sec Density: 9.1 p/cc Temp: 90400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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