[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 23 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 24 10:30:21 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jan 25 Jan 26 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 23 January. There
is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible solar
disk, Region 2733, located at N06E09 at 23/2300UT. Solar activity
is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 24-26
January, with a remote chance of C-class flare. No Earth directed
CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT
day 23 January, the solar wind speed increased from 300 km/s
to ~500 km/s in response to the arrival of fast speed streams
associated with a recurrent positive polarity equatorial coronal
hole. During this period, the total IMF (Bt) ranged between 5nT
and 12 nT. The north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between
-7nT to 7 nT for most of the UT day, with few short-lived periods
of significant southward Bz conditions. The solar wind is expected
to enhance to moderately elevated levels today (UT day 24 January)
and then remain at these moderately elevated levels for the next
UT day (25 January)
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 22223222
Cocos Island 8 22223222
Darwin 8 22223222
Townsville 9 23223222
Learmonth 9 22223322
Alice Springs 8 22223222
Culgoora 7 22222222
Gingin 10 22223323
Canberra 7 22222222
Launceston 13 23333323
Hobart 9 23322222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jan :
Macquarie Island 13 13244312
Casey 22 45434323
Mawson 21 44334334
Davis 16 44333322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 0100 0132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 23 January. Quiet to Active
conditions were observed in the Antarctic regions. The observed
disturbed conditions were caused by CIR and subsequent HSS associated
with a recurrent coronal hole. UT days 24 and 25 January are
expected to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled and at times reaching
Active levels as the coronal hole effects persist.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: On UT day 23 January, there were MUF depressions over
the local day time in the Southern high latitude regions compared
to the monthly predicted levels due to very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun. Similar to slightly stronger degradations
to HF conditions are expected for today due to very low levels
of ionising radiation and current disturbed geomagnetic conditions
associated with the coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jan -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jan -25 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 23 January, MUFs were slightly depressed during
the local day over the low latitude regions. At other times,
MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian
region. Near predicted to depressed MUFs are expected for the
next two UT days (24-25 January), as a consequence of very low
levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and current disturbed
geomagnetic conditions associated with the coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 313 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 22800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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