[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 23 10:30:25 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 22 January. There
is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible solar
disk, Region 2733, located at N05E23 at 22/2230UT. Solar activity
is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 23-25
January. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 22 January, the solar wind speed
mostly remained near its nominal levels, ranging between 300
km/s and 350 km/s. During the last 24 hours, the total IMF (Bt)
was mostly steady near 5 nT. The north-south component of IMF
(Bz) fluctuated between between -4 to 4 nT for most of the UT
day. The solar wind is expected to be remain near nominal conditions
for early part of today (UT day 23 January). Then from late UT
day 23 January, the solar wind is expected to enhance due to
the anticipated arrival of high speed streams (HSS) associated
with a recurrent positive polarity equatorial coronal hole. This
coronal hole during the previous solar rotation caused daily
average winds of up to ~500 km/s. Similar to slightly weaker
effects are expected in this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11101112
Cocos Island 2 12100111
Darwin 4 22101112
Townsville 3 21101112
Learmonth 2 12100111
Alice Springs 3 21001112
Culgoora 3 11101112
Gingin 2 12000121
Canberra 2 11001112
Launceston 3 11101112
Hobart 2 11101111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00000001
Casey 9 33321122
Mawson 15 12112155
Davis 5 22111131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0000 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
24 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 20 January and
is current for 23 Jan only. Quiet geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 22 January. Quiet
to Unsettled conditions were observed in the Antarctic regions.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to Unsettled to
Active levels today (UT day 23 January) in response to the effects
of the CIR and subsequent HSS associated with a recurrent coronal
hole. Isolated minor storms are also possible on today. UT days
24 and 25 January is expected to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled
as the coronal hole effects wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 22 January, there were MUF depressions over
the Southern high latitude regions compared to the monthly predicted
levels due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun. Similar HF propagation conditions are expected for today,
UT day 23 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jan -20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 45% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 22 January, MUFs were moderately depressed
to mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian
region. Sporadic E layers were seen across the Australian region.
Near predicted to moderately depressed MUFs are expected for
today (UT day 23 January), as a consequence of very low levels
of ionising radiation from the Sun. Slightly stronger depressions
are expected on UT day 24 January as an aftermath of the forecasted
geomagnetic activity associated with the approaching coronal
hole effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 322 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 17300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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